Can Social Listening Predict the Oscars 2026? We Analyzed 350K+ Mentions to Find Out

I am a movie geek who’s imagined sitting at the Dolby Theatre more times than I’d admit. This year, I decided to test something bigger instead of the guessing game from the comfort of my couch:

Can social listening predict the outcome of the Oscars? 

Alongside the all-too-known categories, the 98th Academy Awards have presented a new 24th category for the first time in the Oscars history – Best Casting. I believe that this is a smart move and the most unpredictable award on the list. 

Everyone who watched Sinners, Marty Supreme, or One Battle After Another (these films are nominated for the Best Casting category this year) would have something to say on whether the casting worked. And they would share their thoughts online.

Using the power of YouScan, the AI-based social listening platform, I’ve analyzed more than 350K online mentions and over 15M of engagement connected to the Oscars 2026 social media buzz.

My thought so far: the audience drives momentum. Read on — you might find out who is winning the Academy Awards 2026 before the envelope opens. 📨

Setting the Scene: The Oscar 2026 Nominees 

This year’s race is packed with strong contenders:

One Battle After Another follows closely with 13 nominations. Marty Supreme, Frankenstein, and Sentimental Value each earned nine, while Hamnet picked up eight.

In my research, I am focusing on the fresh Best Casting category, as well as Best Picture, Best Actor/Actress in a Leading Role, and Best Supporting Actor/Actress. 

Overall Word Cloud

My Oscar predictions 2026 wouldn’t be accurate without the word cloud – most frequently used words put out there on the Internet. 

Here, we see the main #oscars2026, mentions of the main actors (Timothée Chalamet on Oscar 2026, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Emma Stone), main films of the year (Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme #onebattleafteranother), and others. 

Top authors talking about the Oscars 2026 on social media 

If it weren’t for the audience, the Oscars wouldn’t be such a hot topic nowadays. What matters today is engagement: likes, comments, shares. 

That is why I drilled down to the top 3 authors (communities) with an interest in movies and based on the average engagement that produce content centered around the Academy Awards 2026 ceremony. The numbers are self-explanatory! 👇

3С Films is TOP 1 and has 1M subscribers who produce nearly 100K of average engagement. This community is followed by YASH and Metro Entertainment, which practically share the average engagement, with 35,987 and 32,879.  

Oscars 2026: how we listened, general methodology  

For several weeks leading up to the ceremony, I monitored one of the hottest topics in social media with the help of YouScan’s AI social listening. Here’s what I tracked:

📊 The Numbers:

• 350K+ mentions discussing the 2026 Oscars 

• 185K+ unique authors (individual members and communities who had their say on the Oscar Best Casting category, Best Picture 2026 predictions, Best Actor, Best Actress, and other Academy Awards frontrunners in 2026)

• 15M+ engagements

• Monitoring period: 7 weeks prior to the ceremony 

🔍 What I Measured:

Beyond simple mention counting, YouScan helped me analyze: 

• Sentiments

• Visual content 

• Language patterns

• Audience insights 

🤖 The Secret Weapon behind Oscars 2026 Predictions: Insights Copilot

While traditional social listening gives you dashboards and charts, YouScan’s Insights Copilot – a conversational AI agent that fetches social media data and provides instant, actionable insights – talks to the data in plain English, with in-depth reasoning and examples behind. 

Ask Insights Copilot the right questions, and you shall receive

What has caught my attention is that the online conversations show the hard-to-miss spike around January 22nd.

Setting the guesswork aside, I wanted to dig into the reason why those conversations broke and do some trend analysis. My query was, “What spiked conversations on January 22nd?”:

Exactly on January 22nd, the Academy Awards officially revealed the 2026 Oscar nominees, which triggered immediate growth in global reactions, debates, and analysis of the contenders. 

Best Casting Buzz: Sinners or The Secret Agent? 

Speaking of the sentiment breakdown, the overall majority of the talk is neutral, having +87% of mentions, followed by just 10% in positive and 3% in negative mentions. 

To get this party started, I asked Insights Copilot:

💡 Which Oscar 2026 nominees inspire the most heated debates and arguments in comment sections?

The pattern showed key insights, but what’s crucial is that we can see the real-life examples. Obviously, the audience talks loudly about One Battle After Another, saying the film is practically a “technical marvel”, but what is eye-opening is that the audience is massively supporting Wicked: For Good that received no Oscars 2026 nominations whatsoever: 

As the Best Casting category is the talk of the town this season, I wanted to scrutinize it deeper. For that, I dropped a few questions: 

💡 What are the top 5 themes people discuss when talking about the Best Casting category nominees? 

Based on the social media buzz on the newest Oscar Best Casting category, the neo-noir historical political thriller film The Secret Agent is anticipated to actually win the category (3500+ mentions and counting). 

💡 How do audiences define 'good casting' in these discussions? What criteria do they use to evaluate it?

The film Sinners also appears in this context (around 1,105 mentions for this query and constantly counting). Apparently, the audience believes that the actors collectively elevate the film’s success, not an individual actor. 

Another powerful signal is visual dominance. According to YouScan’s Visual Analysis, Sinners leads in image and video mentions. It means the audiences are not just discussing it, but sharing clips, screenshots, and scenes.

💡Are there any recurring complaints or concerns about the Best Casting category itself as a new award?

As it turned out, there are! Insights Copilot says that the Best Casting is described as a “complete wild card” (1,000+ mentions), also showing some examples of the real-life posts with such a narrative.

With the new category analyzed, I turned to the traditional races — starting with the biggest prizes of all: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress/Actor, and Best Actor/Actress in a Leading Role.

💡 Compare sentiment towards the top 3 Best Picture contenders: Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Frankenstein. What specific strengths and weaknesses does each film have in public perception?

Yes, YouScan’s Insights Copilot can provide summaries! Apparently, Sinners is widely praised for its technical craft and performances, though some critics argue it’s overhyped and may be benefiting from political momentum.

One Battle After Another has sparked mixed reactions: while its direction and acting are commended, many viewers criticize the script, pacing, and what they see as clear Oscar-bait elements.

Frankenstein has received the most consistently positive feedback, applauded for its artistry and emotional depth, with the main criticism being the absence of a Best Director nomination for del Toro.

💡 Compare sentiment toward Timothée Chalamet vs Leonardo DiCaprio. How do their performances and Oscar chances stack up in public perception?

I had no doubt (and social listening insights have proved me right) that public sentiment positions Chalamet as the clear front-runner for Best Actor for his role in Marty Supreme, with many calling him “the inevitable” winner and expecting the Academy to “crown” him this year. 

You think Leonardo DiCaprio faces the same sentiment, don’t you? Social listening tells otherwise. Many movie fans describe his performance in One Battle After Another as merely “fine” or “solid”, not exceptional, and some say he doesn’t deserve a nomination or win. 

💡 What are the audience predictions about Stellan Skarsgård and his chances in the Best Supporting Actor category?

In fact, the audience says he should win! There are more than 1,300 mentions out there predicting it. 

💡 Which film's casting is described as the most 'surprising,' 'unexpected,' or 'bold'? Is this framed positively or negatively?

The answer was super self-explanatory: Jacob Elordi’s nomination for Frankenstein is repeatedly described as the most unexpected, surprising, and bold in the 2026 Oscars social media buzz. A must-watch for sure!

As Best Casting is a completely new category to the audience, I thought it would be wise to compare and contrast the two most promising films in this category: Sinners and One Battle After Another. My question to the Insights Copilot was:

💡Compare sentiment towards the casting of Sinners versus One Battle After Another. What specific aspects does each film get praised or criticized for?

The aspect analysis results stunned me. In general, Sinners is praised for its bold casting and standout performances but criticized for over-recognition and some questionable nominations. One Battle After Another is respected for its casting overall, but some nominations are questioned, and there’s frustration over strategic snubs.

Best Actress & Best Supporting Actress Race: Who’s Taking It Home? 

💡Compare sentiment toward Emma Stone (Bugonia) vs Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) in the Best Actress race. How do their performances and Oscar chances stack up in public perception?

I was 100% sure that Emma Stone was thought to take the Oscars for Best Actress home. In fact, more than 2,5K mentions say that Jessie Buckley is the one most likely to win in this category. Her acting is perceived as ‘one of the greatest performances in cinema history’.

💡 What are the most interesting insights in the Best Supporting Actress category in 2026?

To be honest, I was expecting to see Teyana Taylor gaining popularity in online discussions. However, the insights tell us that Wunmi Mosaku, who has starred in Sinners, is one of the Academy’s best decisions, with almost 2K mentions backing this up.

💡 How is Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas perceived in the Best Supporting Actress category?

Despite the fact that Sinners and One Battle After Another are gathering the leading number of mentions, highlighting their actors across numerous categories, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas seems to be gaining her momentum. Based on the 1,500+ mentions, she is thought to be the winner in the Best Supporting Actress category.

The Audience is Emotionally Invested: Who Says What?

One of the most unprecedented advantages of smart social listening with YouScan is that you can clearly check who is saying what on the topic of your choice. These are the audience insights on the Oscar Best Casting category I was able to get from Insights Copilot:

💡 What are the most active age groups talking about the Oscars 2026 online?

In several seconds, the answer is obvious: the most active age group talking about the Oscars 2026 online is age 30, followed by users in their early 20s (ages 20–26). There is also notable activity from users around age 40 and age 19. From my perspective, this reflects the generation’s interest in movies shot in the 1990s- early 2000s.

💡How does sentiment differ between film critics, industry professionals, and general moviegoers when discussing the Best Casting category?

Here we see a dual approach. It showed that Sinners’ presence in the new category is polarized – some celebrate the horror genre, and others are skeptical that the category helped the film break historical records. Plus, 4,000+ mentions say that The Secret Agent is celebrated as historic for the National Cinema.

While the numbers are usually the best source of truth, I decided to actually see which emotions the audience has when discussing this year’s Oscars Best Picture nominees: 

💡Which Best Picture nominees are most discussed in the context of 'rewatching,' 'showing friends,' or 'watching again'? Which are 'one and done' experiences?"

I don’t remember the year when a horror film would provoke such a large number of good reactions and emotions. But the reality is that 2,000+ mentions show that people are likely to rewatch or have already rewatched Sinners several times. This pattern completely supports the visual analysis we did earlier – people want to watch the movie again and again! 

And the Oscar goes to…data-driven forecast 

After analyzing 360K+ of social media conversations buzzing around the Academy Awards 2026 and running Insights Copilot queries, the patterns become clearer. 

Social listening has managed to highlight several things: 

• Sentiment consistency 

• Momentum growth 

• Engagement intensity 

• Special narratives

Will social listening insights outsmart the Academy voters this Oscar season? 

We’ll see about that on March 15th. Meanwhile, I am here with the ‘boldest’ predictions about the 2026 Oscars winners based on deep social listening insights*:

*Note: The confidence levels are powered by our in-depth analysis of social listening data and represent our own editorial viewpoint. We’re not competing with the Academy voters. The final verdict, of course, belongs to them.    

🎬 Best Casting  

Even though The Secret Agent is widely mentioned as the one who could take the statue home, Sinners dominate visually, generating numerous clips and other content. In a brand-new category, the cultural momentum goes a long way. 

🏆 Best Picture  

I guess the question of who will win Best Picture 2026 morphs into a solid answer now. Yes, Sinners has the volume (16 nominations, which I think is a double-edged sword), but social listening data revealed something crucial: Frankenstein has the ‘most consistently positive feedback’ and is praised for its ‘artistry and emotional depth’.

🎭 Best Actor in a Leading Role

Timothée Chalamet is described by the audience as "the inevitable winner". And I will stick to this one! Compare that to Leonardo DiCaprio, whose performance in One Battle After Another is often called “fine”. However, “fine” just won’t cut it. The voice of the audience will.

🎭 Best Actress in a Leading Role 

To be honest, I thought Emma Stone should win the audience’s hearts in this category. However, the analysis showed another picture, and that’s what the whole idea of social listening is about: challenging your gut instincts with real data. 

⭐️ Best Supporting Actor 

Fun fact: every actor who stars in the Sentimental Value has received their first-ever Oscar nomination. So I just couldn’t resist passing by and seeing what social listening foretells here. Stellan’s nomination is framed as both deserved and overdue — a powerful combination in award narratives. 👀

🥇 Best Supporting Actress 

I will stay with the voices of the crowd on this one. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas has surprised a lot of fans with her play in Sentimental Value, clearly letting Wunmi Mosaku and Teyana Taylor trail behind. Well, we should see about that! 

The Final Word 

The biggest intrigue remains unchanged: who will take the Oscar home in each category? 

We’ve tried to peek behind the curtain using our strongest force: social listening. Yes, it doesn’t replace Academy voters, but still measures the data-driven momentum based on what’s popular among audiences.

Would you like to perform the same analysis in your industry, finding out what people say and why they do that about your brand? Book a demo with YouScan and we'll show you the ropes of expert social listening.

I will get back with the real winners after March 16th, and we’ll see whether our predictions were actually true. Stay tuned!